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Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32596/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2024-08-07T14:09Z. Eruption with M4.5 flare from AR 3744 (approx. S10W22), field line movement, and possible faint EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195. Arrival signature (possibly the combined front of this CME, 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T19:36Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-09T19:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32603/1
Model Inputs:
2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=925.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-07T17:48Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-09T19:19Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.5
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-09T01:48Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-09T11:30Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T08:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240807_174800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.18 hour(s)
Difference: 16.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-08-07T19:44Z

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